MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA INTO N CNTRL IL...PARTS OF NE MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 200021Z - 200145Z
   
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO
   WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN ZONE OF
   ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE...
   ALONG AND NORTH OF A MODEST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTION
   ALONG THE BAND APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND
   MODERATELY LARGE CAPE.  CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 50 KT WEST
   NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF AN
   ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  IF/WHEN CONVECTION
   CONSOLIDATES...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DOWNDRAFT
   OUTFLOW TO PENETRATE THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER...AND EVENTUALLY
   SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  OTHERWISE...SOME
   HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
   PROBABLY BE A MORE PROMINENT THREAT IN PERSISTENT/TRAINING STORMS.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/20/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   41339401 41759274 41519082 41158883 40068905 40109146
               40659322 41339401