MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0628 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 
   
   VALID 020028Z - 020530Z
   
   LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND STRONG/GUSTY
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOP
   ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND CNTRL LOWER MI. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL RATES OF
   ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON BUT COME PORTIONS OF CNTRL MI COULD
   SEE RATES AS HIGH AS 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR.
   
   00Z SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A MATURE AND
   IMPRESSIVE EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH
   HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF MO/IA AND IL. AN
   850 MB LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. LOUIS AT 00Z AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   SHOWED A DRY SLOT SURGING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL AS A MID LEVEL WARM
   CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUED TO ADVECT MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
   SYSTEM. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD...STRONG 850 MB
   FRONTOGENETIC BAND OVER CNTRL IL/IND WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT
   ACROSS LOWER MI. AT THE SAME TIME...INCREASING MID LEVEL JET /AROUND
   40 KT/ AND APPROACHING VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL AID IN FORCING FOR
   ASCENT THROUGH DEEP...SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LIMITED CAPE IN THE DENDRITC ZONE...BUT MOST
   IS ABOVE THE SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A
   MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
   CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDED PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD INCREASE
   RATES.
   
   EXPECT HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO PICK UP BY 03Z WITH 2-3
   INCH PER RATES BY 06Z ACROSS CNTRL LOWER MI AND CONTINUING THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/02/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
   
   LAT...LON   43038239 43948251 44378291 44548361 44578442 44468573
               44298642 44188655 43748686 43128697 42368700 41838683
               41808613 41708416 42068304 42468255 43038239