MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0414
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY....SWRN VA...MUCH OF WV...SERN OH...WRN MD
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 129...
   
   VALID 111944Z - 112045Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 129 CONTINUES.
   
   THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS WW 129 MAY NEED TO BE
   CANCELLED EARLY.
   
   AT 19Z...MESOSCALE ANALYSES SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
   EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL WV TO ERN KY AND INTO
   MIDDLE TN.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AGITATED CU OVER WRN
   WV FROM 10 ESE HTS TO 25 SSW PKB.  REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN
   INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY WITH THIS CONVECTION...THOUGH ACTIVITY IS
   NOT DEEP ENOUGH YET FOR MUCH LIGHTNING PRODUCTION PER LATEST
   LIGHTNING DATA.  DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN WW 129...WEAK
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
   INSTABILITY WITH CURRENT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  ANY TSTMS THAT
   CAN FORM ON THE WIND SHIFT WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A STRONG
   WIND GUST GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
   HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEARS
   TO BE WANING GIVEN A LACK OF GREATER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   AND THE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...
   LMK...
   
   LAT...LON   37638415 38478378 38328328 39528203 39688087 39737891
               38637962 38068078 37368139 37098181 36588163 36678513
               37638415