MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MD/CNTRL AND ERN PA/CNTRL AND ERN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 112243Z - 112345Z
   
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS MAY DEVELOP FROM MD NWD
   INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NY. GIVEN EXPECTED TRENDS AT THE
   MOMENT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS LED
   TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHILE DEW
   POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAVE REACHED MD/ERN PA...AND MID TO UPPER
   50S FARTHER N. HOWEVER...APPEARANCE OF GENERALLY STRATUS
   CLOUDS...LACK OF TOWERING CU/CONVECTIVE TYPE CLOUD STRUCTURES ON
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LACK OF LIGHTNING WITH THE EXCEPTION
   OF CNTRL NY INDICATES THAT STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION STILL
   REMAINS. PER RECENT WV IMAGERY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND IMPLIED UPPER
   ASCENT STILL REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA OVER SERN ONTARIO SWD INTO THE
   OH VALLEY...AND GIVEN NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH PEAK
   DIURNAL HEATING...MAY HAVE ALSO LIMITED MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
   PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CNTRL NY SWD INTO ERN PA THEN
   SWWD THROUGH WV MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHERE CINH IS WEAKER. ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE/HEIGHT
   FALLS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
   WEST...THOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY LIMIT A MORE
   WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS
   DEVELOP...STRONG WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT DMGG WINDS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 04/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...
   
   LAT...LON   40127576 39347715 39857767 41497727 43357589 43807469
               43717370 42387398 40127576