MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0840 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN OK...NRN AR...FAR SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 271340Z - 271445Z
   
   PORTIONS OF FAR ERN OK...NRN AR...AND FAR SRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR INCREASING SVR WEATHER THREAT AND WW ISSUANCE.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 13Z SHOWS LOW PRESSURE RESIDING NEAR THE OK/AR
   BORDER...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD TOWARD NERN AR/SERN
   MO. OBSERVED 12Z RAOBS FROM SGF AND LZK INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDING ABOVE A MOIST BUT SOMEWHAT
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTING
   MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SVR
   THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FROM 40-60
   KT ARE PRESENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL RISK AS
   STORMS TRACK NEWD ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
   
   ..GARNER.. 04/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   34629495 35029528 35639527 36359463 37189295 37049076
               36239034 34759199 34629495