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Mesoscale Discussion 623
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN / LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 271708Z - 271815Z
   
   AIRMASS IS TRYING TO RECOVER OVER WRN TN IN WAKE OF MCS THIS
   MORNING.  VERY STRONG WIND PROFILE IN PLACE MAY WARRANT TORNADO
   WATCH CONSIDERATION...ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION
   CAN OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM.
   
   RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 994 LOW IN N-CNTRL AR WITH AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ATTENDANT TO THE MCS NOW ONGOING OVER SRN MIDDLE
   TN/NRN AL...SLOWLY LIFTING NWD AND BECOMING DIFFUSE ACROSS FAR NRN
   MS.  AN AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS FROM MEM N AND NEWD
   TOWARDS MKL AND PAH ARE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DEEP UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION RESPONSE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE W.  COMPLICATING
   FACTOR HINGES ON SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
   OVER THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE MCS DUE IN PART TO LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
   BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
   INHIBIT OR AT LEAST DELAY SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS
   AREA.  DESPITE THESE CAVEATS...A VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
   SAMPLED BY KNQA VAD /AOA 35 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR/ WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION/ROTATION.  PRIOR TO A TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPING...IN
   THE NEAR-TERM IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
   ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS CORES.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   35109030 35948960 36538824 36858729 36738697 36138694
               35588730 35038824 35109030 
   
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Page last modified: April 27, 2011
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