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Mesoscale Discussion 631
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...ERN WV...MOST OF MD
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 233...
   
   VALID 272039Z - 272145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 233 CONTINUES.
   
   MESOANALYSIS AT 2030Z SHOWS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
   80S ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN THE
   MID/UPPER 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER
   50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF VA/WV. THE WARMING
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS AIDED IN BOOSTING MLCAPE VALUES TO
   1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE LAST HR OVER NRN VA/MD. IN
   ADDITION...SFCOA GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES HAVE
   INCREASED TO AROUND 200-300 M2 S-2. THIS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS ROTATING
   STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
   TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS LOW...AND LATEST
   HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT
   QUESTIONABLE. THEREFORE...SVR WEATHER THREAT MAY BE MARGINAL DURING
   THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW 233 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO
   CONTINUE FOR ONGOING STORMS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 04/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   LAT...LON   38307980 39737893 39717622 39437597 39177626 38627610
               38437629 38257607 38367578 37897588 37887623 38157659
               38257734 37737780 37537887 38307980 
   
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Page last modified: April 27, 2011
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