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| Mesoscale Discussion 634 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MS/AL TO NORTHWEST GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 232...235...
VALID 272201Z - 272330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 232...235...CONTINUES.
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION /PDS/ TORNADO WATCHES 232/235
CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z/03Z RESPECTIVELY.
A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
MS/AL INTO NORTHWEST GA. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS/LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! CITIES AND AREAS AT GREATEST
RISK INCLUDE BIRMINGHAM...HUNTSVILLE...THE I-59 CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN
AL...AND I-65 NEAR/NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM.
A NUMBER OF SEMI-DISCRETE/LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO
FORM WITHIN A PRE-DRYLINE/PRE-COLD FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL MS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN AL. OTHER
TORNADIC STORMS CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A MODIFYING EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONTAL-TYPE BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AL IN THE GENERAL
VICINITIES OF DECATUR/HUNTSVILLE.
THE SPATIALLY WIDE WARM SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE AMID MIDDLE-UPPER
60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WITH LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/MS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS 2000-4000 J/KG
WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR.
RECENT REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA IS INDICATIVE OF AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH
0-1 KM SRH VALUES NOW ESTIMATED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 300-400 M2/S2 AND
0-3 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 600 M2/S2 PER BIRMINGHAM/HUNTSVILLE WSR-88D
VWPS. THIS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED
STRONG/POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS
WITHIN THE BROAD/VOLATILE WARM SECTOR INTO THIS EVENING.
WHILE STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN PDS TORNADO WATCH 232/235...THE RELATIVELY HIGHEST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AL AND NORTHERN HALF OF AL INTO FAR NORTHWEST GA.
HERE...IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY...RELATIVELY STRONG/BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT IN 21Z
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AMID A RELATIVE MAXIMA OF 2-HR PRESSURE
FALLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 IN NORTHERN AL.
..GUYER.. 04/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32559038 34728873 34398454 31278702 31499023 32559038
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