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Mesoscale Discussion 651
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OH...SERN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 242...
   
   VALID 280451Z - 280545Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 242 CONTINUES.
   
   MARGINAL TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXTEND N OF WW 242 ACROSS
   NWRN OH INTO SERN LOWER MI. LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT AND MARGINAL
   NATURE SHOULD MITIGATE AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.
   
   04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 991 MB CYCLONE OVER E-CNTRL IND WITH A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INVOF DETROIT METRO AREA.
   DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...A TSTM CLUSTER HAS PERSISTED NE OF
   THIS CYCLONE WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT COINCIDENT
   WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. AIR MASS
   RECOVERY AT THE SURFACE REMAINS LIMITED WITH DEW POINTS STILL
   HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 50S N OF THE TORNADO WATCH. THIS SUGGESTS
   SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL/SHORT-LIVED TO NECESSITATE A
   NEW WW.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
   LAT...LON   40688457 41628442 42138428 42538394 42688359 42638268
               41158349 40608403 40688457 
   
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Page last modified: April 28, 2011
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