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Mesoscale Discussion 654
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 AM CDT THU APR 28 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 280719Z - 280815Z
   
   LOW-TOPPED LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL POSE SOME RISK FOR
   STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS...BUT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   A LOW-TOPPED BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...IN
   THE ZONE OF ASCENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL
   TROUGH OVER SW OH...WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
   CYCLONE DEVELOPS NNEWD TOWARD SW ONTARIO.  BUOYANCY IS VERY MARGINAL
   /MUCAPE AOB 100-200 J PER KG/ AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
   PARTICULARLY STEEP IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NRN/ERN OH...AND
   CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. 
   STILL...GIVEN THE 50+ KT FLOW IN THE LOWEST KM AGL NOTED AT CLE AND
   ILN...AS WELL AS A LARGE PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET WITH THE FRONTAL
   PASSAGE...A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE NEED
   FOR A WATCH INTO E CENTRAL AND NE OH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
   ATTM...BUT THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 04/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
   
   LAT...LON   40948051 40058081 39768125 39788187 40218220 40518270
               40728304 41028317 41408313 41598285 41568181 41708115
               41688074 40948051 
   
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Page last modified: April 28, 2011
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