MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0331 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...WRN/NRN OK...SERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 102031Z - 102300Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO
   STORM COVERAGE...NONETHELESS...AN ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A WW POSSIBLE.
   
   MIDLEVEL CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY OVER WRN TX/OK AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER
   NM.  THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
   FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS WEAKENED THE CINH AND
   RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG IN SERN KS/NERN OK WITH VALUES
   DECREASING SWWD.  MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
   APPROACHING 40 KTS OVER THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
   INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS THE IMPULSE APPROACHES.  GIVEN THIS
   COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   ..JIRAK.. 06/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   32740159 33240106 33610050 34219994 34999933 35489904
               35729863 35999830 36309787 36599738 36859696 37189655
               37139610 36779596 36189624 35739678 35409707 34979748
               34319819 33859865 33379914 32839979 32530011 32390043
               32320088 32350127 32470155 32730163 32740159