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Mesoscale Discussion 1447
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0951 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...SWRN WY...WRN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 301451Z - 301545Z
   
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN UT INTO SWRN WY
   AND WRN CO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL
   BE LIKELY...ROUGHLY 70 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  PRIMARY
   THREATS...SVR WINDS/HAIL.
   
   COMPACT UPR LOW WITH 50 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO EJECT ENE
   ACROSS ERN UT THIS MORNING.  LOW-LEVEL DRY SLOT ALONG CO/UT BORDER
   HAS ALLOWED AIR MASS TO HEAT RAPIDLY AMID 0.75-0.90 INCH
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  COMBINATION OF VIGOROUS LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
   LAYER...TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER ERN UT.  EXPECT STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE AS THEY SWEEP ENE TOWARD WRN CO AND SWRN WY
   THROUGH THE AFTN.
   
   BACKED DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH
   ATTENDANT SVR WIND THREATS...BUT GIVEN 50-60 KTS OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR...A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  THIS
   WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FROM ECNTRL UT INTO WCNTRL CO THROUGH
   MID-AFTN.  THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
   TORNADO.
   
   EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND ENE INTO CNTRL/ERN WY AND SWD INTO
   SCNTRL/CNTRL CO WITH TIME THIS AFTN.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/30/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...
   
   LAT...LON   37861068 38111104 38441123 38701125 39031122 39401110
               40071093 40551062 41001030 41340965 41550907 41590850
               41540783 41370753 41120725 40820693 40630669 39920641
               39330637 38750638 38100643 37600670 37210714 37380781
               37560813 37680840 37870884 38000929 38030977 37941026
               37861068 
   
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Page last modified: June 30, 2011
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