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Mesoscale Discussion 1451
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MS...ERN/CNTRL LA...FAR SRN
   AR...FAR SWRN AL...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 301928Z - 302200Z
   
   A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
   FROM JUST EAST OF EL DORADO AR TO NEAR VICKSBURG MS TO NEAR MOBILE
   AL. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
   -- I.E. PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 INCHES PER 12Z OBSERVED
   JACKSON...SHREVEPORT...AND SLIDELL SOUNDINGS -- AND AMPLE SFC
   HEATING HAVE SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF BUILDING CUMULUS AND
   ISOLATED CONVECTION PARTICULARLY NEAR AND JUST SW OF THE FRONT. THE
   AIR MASS SW OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY
   UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF ERN LA AND SWRN MS...WHICH WILL FOSTER ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION. WITH NELY LOW/MID-LEVEL
   FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT EVIDENT PER JACKSON/SHREVEPORT/SLIDELL VWP
   DATA...PULSE CONVECTION WILL DRIFT SWWD WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE
   CIRCULATIONS NEAR THE GULF COAST...WHICH MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
   PROPAGATE INLAND. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF DCAPE
   VALUES OF 1000 TO 1300 J/KG WILL SUPPORT INTENSE MICROBURSTS CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING DMGG WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT MAY BE EXACERBATED BY DRY
   AIR ENTRAINMENT AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES OWING TO THE
   PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR ABOVE THE 780-MB LEVEL EVIDENT IN THE
   12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/30/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   32739302 33279267 33299220 33099184 32439118 31759045
               31048884 30748817 30558774 30278788 30278855 29938909
               29388964 29219026 29239088 29369145 30049257 31099300
               32739302 
   
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