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Mesoscale Discussion 170
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS...N-CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 40...
   
   VALID 290157Z - 290245Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 40 CONTINUES.
   
   INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF PERIODIC BRIEF TORNADO
   TOUCHDOWNS WILL BE THE PRIMARY NEAR-TERM SEVERE THREAT INVOF
   RENO/HARVEY/MCPHERSON COUNTIES KS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AS COLD FRONT HAS OVERTAKEN THE DRYLINE INTO
   NWRN OK. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO A LARGELY LINEAR
   MODE...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
   DAMAGING WINDS...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR TWO. A NEW WW
   MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF OK.
   
   01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS OVERTAKEN
   THE DRYLINE ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO FAR NWRN OK...RESULTING IN A
   SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE. THIS HAS YIELDED A RAPID
   INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...A COUPLE
   OF DISCRETE STORMS HAVE PERSISTED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE INVOF HUT.
   ALTHOUGH THE 00Z OUN RAOB WAS QUITE CAPPED...MODIFIED TOP RAOB
   SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IS WEAK /MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG/ BUT SUFFICIENT
   FOR TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS GIVEN PRESENCE OF EFFECTIVE
   SRH AOA 400 M2/S2. CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD
   SUPPORT THESE RISKS WITHIN ONE OR MORE PROBABLE LINE-SEGMENTS
   PROPAGATING QUICKLY E/SEWD THIS EVENING.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/29/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   37609859 37949833 38439760 38609683 38669600 38429574
               37449580 36669616 35969656 35729739 35899852 36349887
               37609859 
   
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Page last modified: February 29, 2012
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