MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NRN LA...NRN MS...NWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 291746Z - 291915Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
   SWEEP EWD WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. A
   WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED BY 19-20Z.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST W OF SHREVEPORT LA INTO
   NERN AR AT 17Z. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE
   AREA...THERE ARE POCKETS OF HEATING ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL LA INTO
   CNTRL MS. GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
   RESULT IN A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   AMPLE DEEP LAYER FLOW EXISTS FOR FAST STORM MOTIONS AND SEVERE
   WINDS...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE
   VEERED...WHICH MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY IF
   MODE IS LINEAR. HOWEVER...BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/BACKED FLOW WILL
   REMAIN OVER ERN MS INTO NRN AL.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
   INVERSION NEAR 700 MB...WHICH WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
   AWAY FROM THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...FROM NRN
   MS INTO NRN AL WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RELATIVE THREAT OF THIS TYPE OF
   DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS SHOULD OCCUR...THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/29/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   35278820 35178776 34848728 34528714 34238737 33918778
               33058941 32469101 31999227 31819314 31999353 32539361
               33429289 34319184 34899093 35198975 35298878 35278820