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Mesoscale Discussion 202
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0425 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SCNTRL IL AND SW IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54...
   
   VALID 021025Z - 021200Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54
   CONTINUES.
   
   A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL INCREASE
   ACROSS THE ST LOUIS AREA ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IL AND SW IND. WW
   ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST OF THE CURRENT WW 54 BEFORE 12Z.
   
   A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CNTRL MO IS LOCATED ON A
   WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL MO TO THE
   NORTHEAST OF A 994 MB SFC LOW. THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A
   SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
   THROUGH SW MO. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION ENEWD  ACROSS
   SCNTRL IL EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND ST LOUIS AND
   IN MT VERNON IL SHOW MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE
   INTENSE CORES. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST BUT SHOULD BE
   KEPT ISOLATED DUE TO A COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/02/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   38929100 37959067 37928886 38268695 38948667 39678698
               39938787 39599044 38929100 
   
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Page last modified: March 02, 2012
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