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Mesoscale Discussion 203
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE IL...SCNTRL IND AND SW OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...
   
   VALID 021350Z - 021515Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IND AND MAY REACH SW OH BY MIDDAY. A WW
   MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES
   TOWARD THE ERN EDGE OF WW 55.
   
   A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SCNTRL IL
   ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM A SFC LOW IN SRN MO. THE
   STORMS ARE ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY EVIDENT ON WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES THAT MUCAPE VALUES NEAR THE
   WARM FRONT ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
   SCNTRL IL AND SCNTRL IND SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A
   LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO
   EXIST BUT THE COOL STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP THIS POTENTIAL
   ISOLATED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/02/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   39838893 39398932 38798922 38438878 38288780 38538629
               39158426 39588384 40138414 40278544 40148767 39838893 
   
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Page last modified: March 02, 2012
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