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Mesoscale Discussion 204
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0907 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR NWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 021507Z - 021600Z
   
   RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
   TSTMS ACROSS NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH. 
   
   LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE WITHIN A
   WEAK WAA ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS NRN AL INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. 12Z
   QAG/BMX SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK STABLE LAYER NEAR 1 KM AGL...BUT
   WITH CONTINUED HEATING THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
   FOR SFC BASED PARCELS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GWX VWP DATA ALSO
   SHOW A STRONG/CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH...WITH 0-1 KM
   BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS WITH THE
   EVOLUTION OF TSTMS...GIVEN LACK OF ROBUST FORCING
   MECHANISMS/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...BUT WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
   HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS FOR A POSSIBLE
   TORNADO WATCH.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   LAT...LON   35888425 35038426 34308550 34158620 34168757 34568792
               35998670 36478586 36548448 35888425 
   
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Page last modified: March 02, 2012
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