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Mesoscale Discussion 205
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0922 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN AND CNTRL
   KY...WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 021522Z - 021715Z
   
   A RAPID INCREASE IN THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE BY
   MIDDAY...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC 500 MB JET CORE IS IN THE PROCESS
   OF INTENSIFYING IN EXCESS OF 100 KT...AS ITS EXIT REGION NOSES
   ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE FOCUSED JUST TO
   THE NORTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE...BUT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
   INHIBITION IN THE WARM SECTOR AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE
   CYCLONE.  AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
   RIVER...AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... MODELS
   SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT AND SHARPENING OF A PRE-COLD FRONTAL DRY
   LINE BY THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME...SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
   ILLINOIS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  STRENGTHENING
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE...COUPLED
   WITH WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BENEATH THE
   MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...MAY SERVE TO FOCUS THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE
   STORMS.  IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...AND LARGE CLOCKWISE
   CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB
   JET...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS.
   
   VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM THE OUTSET...AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL
   MAY ALSO INCREASE QUICKLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY STRONG
   AND DAMAGING TORNADOES INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE
   STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW /50-60+ KT/...CELLS
   WILL BE FAST MOVING...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD
   DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE EAST
   OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/02/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   36018975 37338955 37878912 38728842 39278743 39348634
               38518562 36938575 35218776 35028904 35149006 36018975 
   
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Page last modified: March 02, 2012
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