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Mesoscale Discussion 207
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1028 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...FAR WRN TN...FAR NWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 021628Z - 021730Z
   
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NERN AR
   OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
   DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. 
   
   16Z SFC SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE POSITIONED FROM 30 SE
   UNO TO 20 E HOT...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERING NWRN AR...WITH
   A LINE OF TOWERING CU FORMING ALONG THE EWD MOVING DRYLINE. GLANCING
   INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER IMPULSE /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN KS/NERN
   OK PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO THE N...ALONG
   WITH AMPLE DIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...SHOULD SUPPORT
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
   /MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS/. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT
   AS A MIDLEVEL JET IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN AR/SRN MO...FAVORABLE
   FOR ROTATING STORMS. TSTM COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS
   POINT AS THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED N OF THE
   AREA...BUT WITH THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ALL SVR
   MODES...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY SHOULD CONVECTIVE TRENDS INCREASE.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...
   
   LAT...LON   35728861 34638979 34829203 35539186 36379113 36529082
               36548951 36478896 35728861 
   
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Page last modified: March 02, 2012
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