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Mesoscale Discussion 212 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS...NWRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021857Z - 022000Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DMGG
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF MS/AL WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 80S...SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
1000-1500 J/KG /PER 18Z JAN AND BMX SOUNDINGS/. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SHOW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING APPROXIMATELY 35 SSE GWO ALONG A
PERSISTENT CLOUD BAND /PERHAPS COINCIDENT WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE ZONE/...WHILE A WEAK WAA ADVECTION REGIME IS PRESENT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CNTRL CONUS UPPER TROUGH...BUT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST WEAK CINH MAY STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A SYNOPTIC-SCALE COLD FRONT STILL REMAINS POSITIONED
WELL TO THE W...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
DGX/GWX VWP DATA SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH
HEIGHT...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34368692 33388809 32418968 32509069 33659082 34888975
34958785 34888706 34368692
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