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Mesoscale Discussion 213
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0126 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL MS...NRN LA...E TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 021926Z - 022030Z
   
   RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS ALONG AN EWD
   PROGRESSING DRYLINE ACROSS NRN LA. PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE
   LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 
   
   19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN APPARENT DRYLINE /POSITIONED FROM 30 E ELD
   TO 35 SSE GGG/ MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN LA/ E TX...WHILE PRIMARY
   SYNOPTIC-SCALE COLD FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FARTHER TO THE NW.
   RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN TSTMS IS OCCURRING ALONG THE
   DRYLINE OVER N-CNTRL LA. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OVER THIS
   REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 80S...HAS YIELDED
   MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG /PER RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS /30-40 KTS AT 2 KM AGL PER POE AND DGX VWP
   DATA/ ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO AN
   ENHANCED THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. TOR THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
   BE AS ROBUST AS AREAS FARTHER N/E...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS A
   SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT...AND CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY FAVOR
   BROKEN LINES ANCHORED NEAR/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN STRONG FLOW
   FIELDS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   32789029 32139095 31519237 31169422 31389493 31779476
               32819315 33259223 33549140 33519059 32789029 
   
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Page last modified: March 02, 2012
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