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Mesoscale Discussion 214
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NC AND NWRN SC...NRN GA...ERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 021958Z - 022100Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
   TWO WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   WW.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS FROM 19Z SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE
   ORIENTED E-W ACROSS FAR NWRN SC...ARCING BACK TOWARDS THE NE ALONG
   NEAR THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. A LONE WEAKENING
   SUPERCELL WAS NOTED ON 1950Z RADAR IMAGERY MOVING EWD ACROSS SWAIN
   COUNTY NC. THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL
   EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS. 
   
   FARTHER S/W...BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS HAVE ALLOWED AMPLE SFC HEATING TO
   OCCUR OVER PARTS OF NRN GA AND ERN TN...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
   BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. WEAK ECHOES HAVE
   BEEN NOTED ON RADAR RECENTLY AS WAA HAS INCREASED WITHIN A BROAD
   LLJ. BACKGROUND FLOW FIELDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR
   ROTATING STORMS...WITH FFC VWP DATA SHOWING A STRONG CYCLONICALLY
   CURVED HODOGRAPH. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
   GIVEN ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...
   
   LAT...LON   35938244 35128280 34528329 34128403 34168495 34388535
               34778533 36438457 36638327 36518219 35938244 
   
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Page last modified: March 02, 2012
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