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Mesoscale Discussion 217
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS/AL...WRN/MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 59...
   
   VALID 022125Z - 022230Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 59 CONTINUES.
   
   RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL/MS OVER THE PAST 1-2
   HRS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING /ASSOCIATED
   WITH MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA...AND GLANCING
   INFLUENCE OF A MID-MS RIVER VALLEY UPPER IMPULSE/ IS NOW ENTERING
   WRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AREA. 21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE/WIND
   SHIFT NOW ENTERING WRN TN. ONE SUCH SUPERCELL FORMING IMMEDIATELY
   AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE NASHVILLE METRO
   AREA NEAR/AFTER 22Z /PER CURRENT MOTION EXTRAPOLATION VIA OHX RADAR
   LOOP/. VWP DATA FROM HTX/OHX INDICATES LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /0-1 KM
   BULK SHEAR RANGING FROM 25-40 KTS/ REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY STRONG/ ACROSS THE WW
   AREA...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. 
   
   THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE EWD MOVING
   DRYLINE...AS VEERING WINDS AND A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO
   A REDUCTION IN TSTM/SVR POTENTIAL. LOCAL OFFICES MAY CONSIDER
   CLEARING THE WW FROM W-E AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS E.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   33058739 33079083 36648820 36578466 33058739 
   
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Page last modified: March 02, 2012
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