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Mesoscale Discussion 221
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN-CNTRL-NERN AL / W-CNTRL AND NWRN GA /
   FAR SERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 59...61...63...
   
   VALID 022341Z - 030145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
   59...61...63...CONTINUES.
   
   TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING
   AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF AL AND
   WRN-NWRN GA.  ASIDE FROM THE THREAT OF TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY
   SIGNIFICANT/...SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO POSE AN ACCOMPANYING DMGG
   STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS RISK.
   
   23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE UNIMPEDED WARM/MOIST SECTOR
   ACROSS AL AND MOVING INTO WRN PARTS OF GA --AHEAD OF A DRYLINE OVER
   NWRN MS.  3 HR CHANGE IN SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SHOW A DECREASE OF
   2-7 DEG F AND A 2 DEG F INCREASE...RESPECTIVELY.  THE FORECAST
   CONTINUED TREND IN LOWERING SURFACE SPREADS AND LESS SUBSTANTIAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL SEEMINGLY PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW
   LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.  SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL ACCOMPANY A STRENGTHENING IN THE LLJ
   /40-55 KTS/ FROM SWRN AND W-CNTRL AL NEWD INTO NRN GA IN THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL TORNADO
   EPISODE FROM CNTRL AND E-CNTRL AL NEWD INTO N-CNTRL GA.  THIS
   SCENARIO IS AT LEAST SUPPORTED TO A CERTAIN EXTENT BY THE LATEST
   STORM-SCALE MODEL ENSEMBLE /SSEO/.  AS SUCH...SCATTERED DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS WILL POSE AN ATTENDANT ISOLD TORNADO THREAT --WITH
   PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/02/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   32598809 34718606 35228482 34928377 34058355 33468366
               31108573 31158740 31898840 32598809 
   
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Page last modified: March 03, 2012
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