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Mesoscale Discussion 224
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0224
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0718 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN / NRN AL / CNTRL MS / NERN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 59...60...64...
   
   VALID 030118Z - 030215Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
   59...60...64...CONTINUES.
   
   ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGHEST OVER SRN MIDDLE
   TN AND OVER NRN AL THE NEXT FEW HOURS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER
   SW OVER CNTRL MS AND NERN LA.  
   
   RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS /SOME
   SUPERCELLULAR/ OVER E-CNTRL MS NEWD INTO NRN AL.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRYLINE THAT WILL SOON BE OVERTAKEN BY A
   COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE AREA.  THE JAN 00Z RAOB
   FEATURED A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RELATIVELY MODEST LCL/S
   AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2/.  ALTHOUGH
   SURFACE SPREADS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER --OWING TO DIURNAL COOLING--
   THE LLJ WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED E OVER AL NEWD INTO THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS.  THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT /NOT NEGATE/ TORNADO
   POTENTIAL OVER CNTRL MS...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS OVER THE
   NERN LA/SWRN MS RELEGATED TO ISOLD DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL.  
   
   FARTHER NE OVER NRN AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN...CLUSTERS OF STORMS /SOME
   SUPERCELLS/ ARE SITUATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT.  THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN BMX 00Z RAOB --WITH
   STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE PAST HOUR AT KBMX AND KHTX
   VAD/S SHOWING /300-500 0-1 KM SRH/.  GIVEN A SUFFICIENTLY
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK /FEATURING POSSIBLE
   STRONG TORNADOES/ WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH DMGG WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/03/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
   LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   33478705 31588885 31218982 31229270 31819249 34508763
               35988558 36298485 35368486 34188607 33478705 
   
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Page last modified: March 03, 2012
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