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Mesoscale Discussion 1849
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1849
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 011741Z - 011845Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS IL YIELDING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAAC ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY
   EWD ACROSS MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DOWNSTREAM...PARTIAL BREAKS IN
   CLOUD COVER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS IL.  THIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY
   RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASE IN SMALL DISCRETE SHOWERS THAT HAVE
   DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL IL WITHIN FAVORABLY MOIST BUT
   MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  SEVERAL REPORTS OF TORNADOES HAVE
   BEEN NOTED WITH THESE SMALL SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL SHORT-LIVED WEAK
   TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.
   
   ADDITIONALLY...A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING
   IN INTENSITY ACROSS WCNTRL IL AND THIS APPEARS LOOSELY CORRELATED
   WITH A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND POSSIBLE MID LEVEL VORT LOBE. 
   ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING HAS YET TO BE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ADDITIONAL
   HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS.  LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE WITH THIS SQUALL LINE ALONG
   WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 09/01/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   
   LAT...LON   41178890 41169004 40459066 39709026 38948985 37618961
               37918817 40188786 41178890 
   
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Page last modified: September 01, 2012
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