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Mesoscale Discussion 1850
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1850
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UTAH...NWRN NV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 011831Z - 012030Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THRU THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY/SHEAR TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL. COVERAGE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   DISCUSSION...AS OF 18Z...DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS WRN
   UT...WITH TWO STRONG CELLS OVER MILLARD COUNTY SHOWING SOME MIDLEVEL
   ROTATION. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CU FIELD WITH
   ADDITIONAL STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN UT AND FAR WRN NV.
   THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE EXIT REGION OF 60-80 KT MID-UPPER
   LEVEL JET...WHICH WAS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z VEF SOUNDING. 
   
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 75-80F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   AREA AS OF 18Z. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST...WITH
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 54-58F RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
   SUPPORTING MODERATE MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...MODERATE
   MIDLEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...WHICH IS
   SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES...WITH
   BOWING SEGMENTS AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.  
   
   AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DEEPENS...THE SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL
   INCREASE. IN ADDITION...A SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY
   SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
   INCREASE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
   SEVERE THREAT WILL START TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT THE THREAT MAY PERSIST
   INTO THE EVENING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN UT.
   
   ..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 09/01/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...VEF...LKN...
   
   LAT...LON   37611418 38331466 38971488 39611521 40531577 41461458
               41921343 41761140 40760990 40120979 39351019 38831055
               38341110 37521184 37101238 37121351 37611418 
   
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Page last modified: September 01, 2012
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