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Mesoscale Discussion 1852
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0331 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AZ...SERN UT...SWRN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 012031Z - 012200Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
   REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
   
   DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NRN AZ INTO
   THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE LAST 2-3 HOURS...ON THE NRN EDGE
   OF A MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. DIABATIC HEATING ALONG
   WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE MUCAPE OF 1000-1500
   J/KG. THIS AREA LIES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL
   FLOW ALOFT...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KTS NOTED IN VWP
   DATA AND OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED FIELDS. THE COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY
   AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
   WIND AND HAIL. WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED...WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 09/01/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...
   
   LAT...LON   35701280 36281253 37091204 37731138 38421062 38690993
               38570951 38450878 37960811 37290820 36500853 36120897
               35360957 34961020 34701060 34461171 34511242 34841278
               35701280 
   
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Page last modified: September 01, 2012
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