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Mesoscale Discussion 1854
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1854
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...EXTREME
   WRN KY AND WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 603...605...
   
   VALID 012243Z - 020015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 603...605...CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 00Z OR
   01Z WILL PERSIST FROM NERN AR...SE MO...SRN IL...EXTREME WRN KY AND
   WRN TN. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
   STORMS.
   
   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING...NUMEROUS STORMS INCLUDING DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE BANDS FROM SRN IL THROUGH SERN MO...NERN AND CNTRL AR. A
   40 KT SWLY LLJ WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION ALONG SERN FLANK OF THE
   CIRCULATION FROM ISAAC. THE LLJ MAY STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING IN
   RESPONSE TO VORT MAX PIVOTING SEWD THROUGH SRN MO. COLLOCATION OF
   STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE AXIS OF MODERATE /1500-2000 J/KG
   MLCAPE/ ALONG WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORM MODES WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT
   FOR TORNADOES INTO THE EVENING...WITH THREAT AREA SHIFTING EWD WITH
   TIME. FARTHER SW TOWARD CNTRL AR LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE VEERED
   RESULTING IN SMALLER HODOGRAPHS AND SUGGESTING PRIMARY THREAT IN
   THIS REGION SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/01/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...
   
   LAT...LON   35029001 34159240 34529342 35349167 35909085 37228958
               38598836 37808802 35029001 
   
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Page last modified: September 02, 2012
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