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Mesoscale Discussion 1855
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0649 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UTAH...SRN ID...FAR SWRN WY...NWRN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604...
   
   VALID 012349Z - 020115Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN AND AROUND WW
   604 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS
   SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE.
   
   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS DEPICT A DIMINISHING NUMBER OF
   TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF
   REDUCED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AS THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVERHEAD OR JUST E OF N-CNTRL UT. DESPITE
   THE REDUCED COVERAGE...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND/HAIL. RECENT
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS TOOELE CO APPEARS TO HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A
   RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE
   TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS W-CNTRL EWD INTO CNTRL UT. 
   
   N OF THE WATCH AREA /SRN ID/...SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT QUITE AS
   STRONG BUT GIVEN THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND MODEST INSTABILITY
   /MLCAPE AOA 500 J/KG/ A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EWD INTO A DRY
   LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. 
   
   E OF THE WATCH AREA /NWRN CO/...SHEAR PROFILE AND INSTABILITY ARE
   WEAKER BUT THE ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
   STRONG WIND GUSTS. TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA MAY INTENSIFY AS
   THE SHEAR PROFILE GRADUALLY INCREASES /DEPICTED WELL ON THE GJX VAD
   PROFILE/. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT
   TSTM COVERAGE AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 09/01/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN...
   
   LAT...LON   38141406 42001404 42001106 41591104 41571006 41001004
               41000998 39820996 39441001 39101015 38941018 38861017
               38641008 38491003 38521179 38411183 38161183 38141406 
   
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Page last modified: September 02, 2012
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