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Mesoscale Discussion 1881
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS...OK PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 042153Z - 050000Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS
   AND THE OK PANHANDLE. THESE HIGH BASED TSTMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL THREAT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COVERAGE
   IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS
   AND THE OK PANHANDLE AMIDST A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK
   CONVERGENCE ALONG A DRYLINE-LIKE FEATURE EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL NEB
   SWWD INTO FAR NWRN KS/NERN CO. THIS HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
   TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS REVEAL THE
   STORMS ARE OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO
   INITIATE ALONG THE VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE BEST SHEAR IS
   LOCATED ACROSS SWRN KS /ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM
   PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA/ WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS
   OVER ERN KS /E OF THE 60 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM/. 
   
   AS SUCH...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NWRN KS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY
   UNORGANIZED WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A MORE
   TEMPERED THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN MOVE INTO THE
   MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE THREAT MAY TRANSITION FROM ISOLATED
   TO SCATTERED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OK
   PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
   
   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 09/04/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   37949741 37309806 36889869 36639933 36529998 36520106
               36550174 37240192 37680182 38310165 39290127 39820065
               39859958 39729824 39409758 38999739 38539729 37949741 
   
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Page last modified: September 05, 2012
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