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Mesoscale Discussion 1882
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB THROUGH EXTREME SERN SD INTO WRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 042208Z - 042345Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY
   INCREASE OVER WRN IA LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A DRYLINE/CONVERGENCE TROUGH AXIS
   EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NEB SWWD INTO NWRN KS. A WEAKER CONVERGENCE
   BOUNDARY EXISTS OVER SERN NEB. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
   UPPER 90S TO 100 F AND DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE 40S RESULTING
   IN DEEPLY MIXED AND WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYERS. INSTABILITY
   REMAINS AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF ERN NEB TO THE WEST OF PRIMARY
   MOIST AXIS WITH MUCH STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO IA.
   HIGH BASED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG PREVIOUSLY
   MENTIONED BOUNDARIES AND MAY INTENSITY AS THEY ADVANCE EWD. STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS
   STORMS DEVELOP EWD AND INTERCEPT STRONGER INSTABILITY.
   
   OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING FROM NERN NEB INTO WRN
   IA WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO POSE
   A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 09/04/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   LAT...LON   40369781 41369818 42519837 42879814 42799692 41769555
               40499608 40369781 
   
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Page last modified: September 04, 2012
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