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Mesoscale Discussion 1886
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1886
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0951 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA THROUGH SRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615...
   
   VALID 050251Z - 050345Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NRN IA AND SRN MN WITH
   A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS WILL
   APPROACH THE ERN BOUNDARY OF WW 615 BY 330Z...AND IF INTENSITIES ARE
   MAINTAINED A NEW WW WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED.
   
   DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINE THAT IS MOVING EWD AT
   30-35 KT. THE ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITH 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. THERE IS SOME
   CONCERN THAT THE STABILIZING SFC LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW
   DECREASE IN OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES. HOWEVER...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
   WINDS AND SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW FROM UNSTABLE WARM
   SECTOR...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE ALONG
   INSTABILITY GRADIENT NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/05/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...
   
   LAT...LON   42349542 43259537 44009541 44129377 43559320 42349328
               42349542 
   
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Page last modified: September 05, 2012
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