Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1888
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1888 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1888
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 AM CDT WED SEP 05 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618...
   
   VALID 050843Z - 051015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL COULD CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
   CONVECTION SPREADING THROUGH PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA/SOUTHERN
   WISCONSIN AND  NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 
   BUT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED
   ENOUGH TO ALLOW WW 618 TO EXPIRE WITH NO ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
   LEADING EDGE OF AN EXPANDING/STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL.  THIS
   APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING MAINLY WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SURFACE
   FLOW...TO THE NORTH OF A PRECEDING STALLING/WEAKENING CONVECTIVELY
   GENERATED COLD POOL...IS IMPINGING ON IT...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE AND LIFT.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   REMOVED FROM STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
   THROUGH THE 09-11Z TIME FRAME.  COUPLED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
   INCREASING STABLE INFLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING OF
   CONVECTION...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK.
   
   ..KERR.. 09/05/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
   
   LAT...LON   42988988 42988881 42428814 41098827 40338944 40539056
               40749141 40839261 41409312 42149227 42329149 43019068
               42988988 
   
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 05, 2012
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities