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Mesoscale Discussion 1890
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 051751Z - 051945Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND WILL BE
   POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE UNITED
   STATES.
   
   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS FORMED OVER NERN LOWER
   MI...WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ALSO IN A ZONE OF THETA-E
   ADVECTION WITH SWLY 850 MB FLOW. WHILE MUCH OF FAR SERN LOWER MI WAS
   CLOUDY WITH RAIN...THE THUMB AREA WAS RECEIVING ADDITIONAL HEATING
   WITH A CU FIELD PRESENT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS
   THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE COUNTRY.
   
   WHILE LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...LOW TO
   MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND SUGGESTS ONLY
   MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME ROTATION BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT IS
   LOW.
   
   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 09/05/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...
   
   LAT...LON   42538391 43758399 45148340 45368237 45028175 44088148
               43198170 42878194 42628225 42428275 42538391 
   
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Page last modified: September 05, 2012
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