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Mesoscale Discussion 1892
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1892
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 051812Z - 051915Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLD INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND MAY OCCUR AS THUNDERSTORMS
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   DISCUSSION...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
   TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN APPROACHING
   UPPER SHORT WAVE AND A SEWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. THUS FAR...WEAK
   INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITING STRONGER UPDRAFTS...EVIDENCED BY
   QUICKLY COLLAPSING CORES. MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ACROSS SRN NEW
   ENGLAND MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW SMALL/BRIEF-LIVED
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH FASTER LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING TO THE
   SURFACE. TO THE S...WEAKER FLOW BUT MARGINALLY GREATER INSTABILITY
   MAY LEAD TO A FEW PULSE STORMS...WITH A DEEPLY SATURATED AIR MASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCH CONTRIBUTING TO
   PRECIPITATION LOADING AND RESULTING IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
   
   ..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 09/05/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
   
   LAT...LON   38147919 38427858 39627573 41137233 41867052 41477015
               40927141 39427423 38177668 37747880 38147919 
   
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Page last modified: September 05, 2012
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