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Mesoscale Discussion 1894
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1894
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL KS...WRN OK...OK/TX PANHANDLES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 051949Z - 052045Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH THE EVOLUTION OF EXPECTED STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
   UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON IN TX.
   
   DISCUSSION...EVOLUTION OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
   CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES FOR
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE MCD AREA. A COLD FRONT IS ORIENTED
   ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO S CNTRL KS. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE
   SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT HAVE
   LIMITED STRONGER SURFACE HEATING. VANCE AFB VAD WIND PROFILE IN OK
   IS ALSO INDICATING NLY SFC-3 KM WINDS...GIVING SOME APPROXIMATION
   FOR THE LOCATION OF A THERMAL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...CU FILED IS
   INCREASING ALONG A WEAK CONFLUENT AREA/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK. 
   
   WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING...STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY
   DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO /ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   TX/...PARTICULARLY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN
   APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE ALONG ANY OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL LIKELY AID IN THE FORMATION OF A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL SLY WINDS BEGIN
   TO STRENGTHEN.
   
   ..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 09/05/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   34950257 35440204 36860016 37039890 36659832 35579857
               34819914 33949993 34120148 34950257 
   
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Page last modified: September 05, 2012
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