MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0402 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...SRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 052102Z - 052230Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS ACROSS FAR NRN IL AND SRN WI...AND THE AREA IS
   BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WAS AFFECTED BY EARLY
   DAY CONVECTION...BUT SOME RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE. STREAMLINES ARE
   CONVERGING OVER THE AREA BUT SOME CAPPING EXISTS. THE SURFACE
   THETA-E AXIS REMAINS W OF THE AREA...BUT MORE BUOYANT AIR MAY
   EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SLOWLY FROM THE SW. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE FORCING
   WILL OVERCOME CAPPING...BUT IF IT DOES...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE
   FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND WIND.
   
   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 09/05/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...
   
   LAT...LON   41828717 41618750 41728930 41819030 42329053 42799015
               42788915 42668760 42288707 41938710 41828717