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Mesoscale Discussion 1897
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0531 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/MIDDLE TN TO
   CENTRAL/EASTERN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 620...621...
   
   VALID 052231Z - 060000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   620...621...CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERIODIC SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NORTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/NORTHERN TN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ACROSS
   EASTERN KY. SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 620/621 CONTINUE. ALSO MONITORING
   FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH /40 PERCENT PROBABILITY/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   TN/FAR EASTERN AR/FAR NORTHERN MS...ALTHOUGH THE NEED FOR A NEW
   WATCH IS UNCLEAR AND/OR LOCAL WFO EXTENSION/S MAY BE MORE PRUDENT.
   
   DISCUSSION...WITH A SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO-HIGH NOTED ALONG THE OH
   RIVER VICINITY...AN EXTENSIVE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SQUALL
   LINE CONTINUES TO SLOW BUT STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
   MIDDLE TN. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED AND MORE
   VIGOROUS TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE MO
   BOOTHEEL/NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN TN AS OF 2215Z. 
   
   SIMILAR TO CURRENT TRENDS...THE STRONGEST TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO
   PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN AR AND
   WESTERN/NORTHERN TN AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
   MS/NORTHWEST AL. HERE...THE AIRMASS REMAINS WARM/UNSTABLE WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S F AND MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE
   ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS DERIVED WINDS FORM
   OHX/PAH/HPX SAMPLE A STEADY INCREASE IN WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
   ALOFT...WHICH WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
   CONGEAL/SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS
   AND SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PRIOR TO EVENTUAL
   POST-SUNSET COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A PROBABLE DIMINISHING
   INTENSITY TREND.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/05/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...
   
   LAT...LON   35329114 36119028 36618798 36888600 37868472 38458414
               38408351 37068366 36038583 34988883 35329114 
   
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Page last modified: September 06, 2012
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