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Mesoscale Discussion 1899
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1052 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...FAR NRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 
   
   VALID 061552Z - 061715Z
   
   SUMMARY...SMALL TSTM CLUSTER NEAR KS/MO BORDER MAY GROW UPSCALE AS
   IT PROGRESSES INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS AREA WILL
   BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK AND IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   DISCUSSION...SMALL TSTM CLUSTER CENTERED OVER BOURBON COUNTY KS MAY
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS DOWNSTREAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   WARMS THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE 90S AMIDST PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5
   INCHES. THIS SHOULD YIELD MODERATELY LARGE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE
   LIKELY INCREASING TO NEAR 2500 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF A
   WEAK CYCLONE NEAR THE KS/OK/MO BORDER AND REMNANT QUASI-STATIONARY
   FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS SRN MO MAY FOSTER CONGLOMERATING UPDRAFTS
   AND YIELD UPSCALE GROWTH...PER RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE. WEAK ELY
   COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW AMIDST MODEST MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 09/06/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   38109411 38379228 38409135 38259042 38119004 37468972
               36868977 36508998 36159047 36109155 36159361 36289445
               36839486 37649476 38109411 
   
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Page last modified: September 06, 2012
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