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Mesoscale Discussion 1900
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1204 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL AND UPSTATE NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 061704Z - 061800Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WIND WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WHEN/IF STORMS CAN BECOME SUSTAINED. THE AREA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...12Z BUF/PIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
   BETWEEN 78 AND 83 F...AND WITH INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES...DIURNAL
   HEATING HAS BEEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
   RISE TO THESE VALUES. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO
   STEEPEN...CU NOW NOTED ON 1630Z VISIBLE IMAGERY WILL GRADUALLY
   BECOME MORE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED WITH TIME. SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES
   EXIST FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...INCLUDING A LK BREEZE
   BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE LEEWARD SHORES OF LK ONTARIO...AN AREA
   OF CONVERGENCE N OF LK ERIE WHERE LIGHTNING HAS RECENTLY BEEN
   NOTED...A MOISTURE GRADIENT W OF OTTAWA...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
   THE ADIRONDACKS. ALTHOUGH 1630Z WV IMAGERY SHOWS SUBTLE
   MOISTENING/IMPLIED ASCENT APPROACHING WRN NY...THE UPPER LEVEL
   FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WEAK AT BEST. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT SEVERAL SMALL
   BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS SHOULD CONVECTION BECOME
   BETTER ORGANIZED.
   
   ..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 09/06/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   LAT...LON   42077922 42767892 43117892 43277782 43047682 43357630
               44327565 44937486 45057342 44527328 43597428 42327598
               41697809 41687915 42077922 
   
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Page last modified: September 06, 2012
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