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Mesoscale Discussion 1902
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MD 1902 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0310 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB...WRN KS...OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES...NERN
   NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 062010Z - 062245Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FROM NWRN
   KS TO THE RATON MESA BY 21-22Z. WITH A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
   AND ON THE FRINGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR
   PROBABLE WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND. ONE OR
   MORE SEVERE TSTM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE CU FIELD HAS INCREASED ALONG A LEE TROUGH THAT
   EXTENDED FROM S-CNTRL NEB ACROSS WRN KS INTO FAR NERN NM. AS MLCIN
   CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...TSTM INITIATION APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
   THE RATON MESA AND SEPARATELY JUST S OF GLD PER VISIBLE IMAGERY.
   ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS HAD LARGELY MIXED INTO THE 50S WITHIN
   THIS CORRIDOR...STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFT ACCELERATION WITH
   HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL REMAIN REMOVED FROM
   THE STRONGEST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WLYS FROM WY TO THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   
   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 09/06/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   36310064 35380190 35080315 35570404 36220399 37310184
               38710166 40290038 41119941 41289881 41209851 40999838
               40669824 39909842 38559901 36310064 
   
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Page last modified: September 06, 2012
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