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Mesoscale Discussion 1905
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NY AND NE PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 626...
   
   VALID 062245Z - 062345Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 626
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS
   STORMS VERY SLOWLY TRACK E/SEWD. A DOWNWARD TREND IN SEVERE THREAT
   IS EXPECTED DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF ORGANIZATION.
   A NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 626.
   
   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER
   THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STORM INTENSITY HAS GENERALLY DECREASED OVER
   THE LAST 30 MINUTES AND STORMS CONTINUE TO BE UNORGANIZED DUE TO
   WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WHILE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN WEAK LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SFC FRONT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING/INCREASING LOW LEVEL STABILITY COUPLED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
   FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING SEVERE THREAT SOON AFTER SUNSET.
   A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM OF WW 626 IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 09/06/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   LAT...LON   43167405 41427464 40717643 40777717 41187751 41957742
               42507704 43167405 
   
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Page last modified: September 06, 2012
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