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Mesoscale Discussion 1906
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0629 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN MO/FAR NORTHERN AR TO SOUTHERN
   IL/WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625...
   
   VALID 062329Z - 070100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 625 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z. DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
   IL/EXTREME SOUTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN KY/FAR NORTHWEST TN THROUGH
   00Z-01Z. OTHER SEVERE TSTMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   REMAINDER OF FAR SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR.
   
   DISCUSSION...A WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR SEVERE MCS/BOW ECHO
   CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE/RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 45 KT IN
   VICINITY OF THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVERS TOWARD
   WESTERN KY AS OF 2320Z. A WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL/BUBBLE HIGH IS
   READILY EVIDENT IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH
   WELL-ORGANIZED/ASYMMETRICAL CHARACTERISTICS INCLUDE A REAR-INFLOW
   JET/NORTH-END VORTEX PER RADAR DATA. 
   
   GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT CONCERN
   IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS WESTERN KY/EXTREME SOUTHERN/FAR NORTHWEST
   TN WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /2000+ J PER KG MLCAPE/.
   HOWEVER...POST-SUNSET BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   STORM RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR A WEAKENING TREND TOWARD
   01Z. AS SUCH...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO
   THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WW 625...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ELSEWHERE...OTHER MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IN
   THE FORM OF SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EDGE OF COLD POOL ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHERN MO/FAR NORTHERN AR.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/06/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   38488956 38398900 37608787 36668688 36088827 36119354
               36499414 36999386 36949017 38488956 
   
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Page last modified: September 07, 2012
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