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Mesoscale Discussion 1907
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MD 1907 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1907
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0717 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB AND NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KS
   TO NORTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 627...
   
   VALID 070017Z - 070145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 627
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 627 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH DAMAGING
   WIND/SEVERE HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITHIN A
   CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB AND NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL
   KS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND
   NORTHWEST OK.
   
   DISCUSSION...NEAR/EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WIDELY SCATTERED
   STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND AT LEAST A
   FEW/MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE FROM NEAR THE
   NEB/NORTH-CENTRAL KS BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR DODGE CITY...AND
   FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TX
   PANHANDLE AS OF 00Z. THE AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS WARM/MODESTLY
   MOIST...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 750-1250 J/KG
   BASED ON 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM DODGE CITY/TOPEKA. IN THE SHORT
   TERM...AFOREMENTIONED WARM/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PRESENCE
   OF 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
   SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL THROUGH
   01Z-02Z. WITH TIME...A GRADUALLY DECOUPLING BOUNDARY
   LAYER/INCREASING CINH SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR A WEAKENING INTENSITY TREND
   BY MID-EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/07/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   40429878 40499765 38459727 36159997 36450162 38670016
               40429878 
   
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Page last modified: September 07, 2012
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