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Mesoscale Discussion 1910
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1009 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...IND...WRN OH...CNTRL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 071509Z - 071715Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ONGOING/LARGELY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD BECOME
   INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED AS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HEATS AND
   DESTABILIZES. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   EMBEDDED ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND PROBABLE UPSCALE GROWTH ALONG THE
   LEADING FLANK WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS GENERALLY SURGED S OF
   THE REMNANT MCS ACROSS CNTRL IL...THE LEADING PORTION OF THE MCS HAS
   TAKEN ON A MORE N/S-ORIENTATION THAT IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
   DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW. AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM AND
   WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BASED ON THE 12Z ILN
   RAOB...ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED. SOME UNCERTAINTY
   DOES EXISTS ON WHEN THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. BUT AMIDST FAVORABLE
   0-6 KM SPEED SHEAR AS SAMPLED BY THE WOLCOTT IND
   PROFILER...CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT AND LIKELY
   DEVELOP EMBEDDED SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   41408583 41398416 40538371 39888405 39348492 38888783
               39088885 39428904 39948873 40438720 41408583 
   
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Page last modified: September 07, 2012
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