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Mesoscale Discussion 1912
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MD 1912 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...NWRN PA...SWRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628...
   
   VALID 071816Z - 071915Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES WITH A SHORT LINE OF STRONG
   TO LOCALLY SEVERE TSTMS FROM NWRN OH TO E-CNTRL IND. TSTMS
   DEVELOPING E/NEWD AHEAD OF THIS LINE INTO SWRN NY MAY INTENSIFY TO
   MARGINAL SEVERE LEVELS...BREEDING UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
   NECESSITY/TIMING OF A DOWNSTREAM WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN PRIMARILY
   ERN PORTIONS OF WW 628. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM TSTM CELLS HAVE FORMED
   ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS TO THE E/NE...S OF LK ERIE. THIS
   ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY THUS FAR...PERHAPS OWING
   TO  WEAKER ASCENT WITHIN THIS REGION. STILL...A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
   COMBINATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY /PER PARTIAL 18Z ILN
   RAOB/ MAY YIELD A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND. A GREATER ORGANIZED THREAT MAY EVOLVE IF THESE CELLS CAN
   MERGE AND CONGLOMERATE WITH THE NWRN OH/E-CNTRL IND LINE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/07/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
   
   LAT...LON   41118404 41398185 42457932 42647876 42627853 42427837
               41617880 40598022 40148214 39778371 39518475 39398527
               39498566 39848573 40018550 41118404 
   
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Page last modified: September 07, 2012
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