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Mesoscale Discussion 1913
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 071841Z - 072015Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
   ABOUT 2000Z AS THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND/HAIL INCREASES THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN KS IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED EWD ATOP A
   WWD/NWD-GRADUALLY-SLOPING FRONT THAT INTERSECTS THE SFC FROM N-CNTRL
   TO SWRN MO INTO NERN OK. AS THIS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
   INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE SFC FRONT WHERE
   MODIFIED SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...IT SHOULD
   INTENSIFY WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED. ALSO...A BAND OF
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPING INVOF A FRONTAL SEGMENT IN N-CNTRL
   MO MAY EVOLVE INTO DEEPER CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 20-35
   KT...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES PER SPRINGFIELD VWP
   DATA...SUGGEST ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   OF CONCERN...WITH SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
   
   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   36689399 37339454 38849447 39409305 39689171 38779098
               37689099 36749166 36529311 36689399 
   
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Page last modified: September 07, 2012
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