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Mesoscale Discussion 1914
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628...
   
   VALID 071939Z - 072045Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...SWRN PORTION OF QLCS HAS SLOWED ITS EWD PROGRESSION ALONG
   THE IND/OH BORDER...RELATIVE TO THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE. IF THIS
   TREND CONTINUES...THIS PORTION OF THE LINE MAY TAKE ON A MORE
   W/E-ORIENTATION AND LARGELY REMAIN WITHIN THE ILN CWA. A LOCAL WW
   AREAL EXTENSION MAY BE THE MORE PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION FOR
   HANDLING THE DOWNSTREAM THREAT.
   
   DISCUSSION...WITH OUTFLOW BECOMING MORE ELONGATED OVER TIME AND
   MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING WITH NRN EXTENT...THE ORIENTATION OF THE
   LONG-LIVED QLCS HAS CHANGED TO A SW/NE-ORIENTATION. THE SWRN PORTION
   OF THE LINE INTERCEPTS THE THERMAL/MOIST AXIS WITH THE MODIFIED 18Z
   ILN RAOB SUGGESTIVE OF MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH DEEPER CU
   EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE LINE N OF THE OH RIVER...IT APPEARS PROBABLE
   THAT THE SWRN EXTENT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN IN THE OH PORTION OF THE ILN CWA THROUGH 22Z.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/07/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...
   
   LAT...LON   40378345 40178231 40038210 39508218 39248258 39018342
               38908424 38998489 39128514 39528509 39898455 40378345 
   
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Page last modified: September 07, 2012
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